Tuesday, August 20, 2013

anticipatory marketing

There are two components of Anticipatory Marketing (AM). Consumer choice and consumer experience.

Consumer choice is a consumer's mental image of a product or service. The mental image is what the consumer prefers or desires. Christensen, Olson and Ross refer to it as a consumer's self-referrent image of a product. A choice that emerges from a combination of knowledge, experience and suggestive information. It is most often what a consumer buys. Although not all the time. There are multiple gaps between a consumer's choice and a consumer's decision to buy.

For example, a time gap exists. Benjamin Libet's theory on free will recognizes a time lag between conscious purchase and free will. This time lag affects a consumer's ability to respond in real time. Which explains in part, or which appears to lead to, impulse buying. Shariff and Peterson of University of Toronto explain this perfectly well in their article on anticipatory consciousness. There are other gaps. Resource gap. Convenience gap. Influence gap. Which are all self explanatory. AM fully recognizes the consumer's self referent image and the realities that allow or prevent this image to materialize.

This position is significant in the formulation of an AM agenda. AM understands that consumer choice, to a manageable extent, is predictable. AM contends that by understanding and measuring the conscious choice, both in the context of what is desired and realities of consumption, a marketer may be able to anticipate the actions of a consumer. How?

Consumer experience is the sum total of a consumer's conscious choice and conditions that dominate this choice. This is measured by actual transactions which may be available in documented transactions or defined in statistical surveys. In its absence, actual transaction may be substituted by primary data drawn from a well-designed statistical survey. AM requires an investigation of consumer choice and free will. Results strengthens findings derivable from actual transactions.

The charts below shows an execution framework for AM presented in a hierarchical sequence (chart 1).
 
Chart 1: AM Execution Framework 
    
Is AM anticipation marketing. No, it is not. Although AM looks at anticipation marketing as an important influencer in consumer choice. It may have a greater influence in a consumer's free will. Anticipation marketing, as defined by Baron, Hickey and Merrel,  is identifying, exploring and understanding an interesting consumer response phenomena -- collective irrationality. It is a strategy that drives interest in a product in the absence of above the line and below the line advertising.

How is AM different from predictive analytics? Predictive analytics makes use of transactional data to generate a predictive model. Sometimes exclusively. AM borrows from various disciplines, as shown in the chart below, and formulates a consumer model that combines consumer choice, free will and consumer experience.

               Chart 2: Components of AM      

For comments, email Nick Fontanilla to abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com. For inquiries on Anticipation Marketing and how a company may be able to make use of this tool, email to info@imetricsasia.com.

Bibliography
1. Glenn L. Christensen, Jerry C. Olson, William T. Ross, "Why Consumption Vision? Understating Consumer Value in Anticipatory Consumption Imaging," Advances in Consumer Research Volume 31, © 2004 (www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v31/acr_vol31_65.pdf) 
2. Azim F. Shariff and Jordan B. Peterson, "Anticipatory consciousness, Libet’s veto and
a close-enough theory of free will," University of Toronto (http://sharifflab.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Shariff-Peterson-2005.pdf)
3. Ellen Baron, Kristin Hickey and Paul Merrell, "Anticipation Marketing: Understanding buzz for Generation Now, Esomar, 2008.

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