anticipatory marketing

There are two components of Anticipatory Marketing (AM). Consumer choice and consumer experience.

Consumer choice is a consumer's mental image of a product or service. The mental image is what the consumer prefers or desires. Christensen, Olson and Ross refer to it as a consumer's self-referrent image of a product. A choice that emerges from a combination of knowledge, experience and suggestive information. It is most often what a consumer buys. Although not all the time. There are multiple gaps between a consumer's choice and a consumer's decision to buy.

For example, a time gap exists. Benjamin Libet's theory on free will recognizes a time lag between conscious purchase and free will. This time lag affects a consumer's ability to respond in real time. Which explains in part, or which appears to lead to, impulse buying. Shariff and Peterson of University of Toronto explain this perfectly well in their article on anticipatory consciousness. There are other gaps. Resource gap. Convenience gap. Influence gap. Which are all self explanatory. AM fully recognizes the consumer's self referent image and the realities that allow or prevent this image to materialize.

This position is significant in the formulation of an AM agenda. AM understands that consumer choice, to a manageable extent, is predictable. AM contends that by understanding and measuring the conscious choice, both in the context of what is desired and realities of consumption, a marketer may be able to anticipate the actions of a consumer. How?

Consumer experience is the sum total of a consumer's conscious choice and conditions that dominate this choice. This is measured by actual transactions which may be available in documented transactions or defined in statistical surveys. In its absence, actual transaction may be substituted by primary data drawn from a well-designed statistical survey. AM requires an investigation of consumer choice and free will. Results strengthens findings derivable from actual transactions.

The charts below shows an execution framework for AM presented in a hierarchical sequence (chart 1).
 

Chart 1: AM Execution Framework 

    
Is AM anticipation marketing. No, it is not. Although AM looks at anticipation marketing as an important influencer in consumer choice. It may have a greater influence in a consumer's free will. Anticipation marketing, as defined by Baron, Hickey and Merrel,  is identifying, exploring and understanding an interesting consumer response phenomena -- collective irrationality. It is a strategy that drives interest in a product in the absence of above the line and below the line advertising.

How is AM different from predictive analytics? Predictive analytics makes use of transactional data to generate a predictive model. Sometimes exclusively. AM borrows from various disciplines, as shown in the chart below, and formulates a consumer model that combines consumer choice, free will and consumer experience.

               Chart 2: Components of AM      

For comments, email Nick Fontanilla to abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com. For inquiries on Anticipation Marketing and how a company may be able to make use of this tool, email to info@imetricsasia.com.

Bibliography
1. Glenn L. Christensen, Jerry C. Olson, William T. Ross, "Why Consumption Vision? Understating Consumer Value in Anticipatory Consumption Imaging," Advances in Consumer Research Volume 31, © 2004 (www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/v31/acr_vol31_65.pdf) 
2. Azim F. Shariff and Jordan B. Peterson, "Anticipatory consciousness, Libet’s veto and
a close-enough theory of free will," University of Toronto (http://sharifflab.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Shariff-Peterson-2005.pdf)
3. Ellen Baron, Kristin Hickey and Paul Merrell, "Anticipation Marketing: Understanding buzz for Generation Now, Esomar, 2008.

Demystifying Erap's Winnability

The chances of a presidential candidate winning the 2010 Philippine presidential election depend on two major factors.

The first, which was the subject of another article in this blogspot (The Winnable Presidential Candidate), is the numerical factor. This factor suggests that to have a winning chance, the candidate must have a political base of at least 20% of voters 12 months into the election. It is easy to understand the importance of this critical mass base. It is also an important signal for the candidate – to be or not to be a presidential candidate.

It also suggests that the chances of the presidential candidate will depend so much on the candidate’s ability to get a significant proportion of the ‘undecideds’ or those who have a choice but are still open to persuasion.

Second is the image factor. The ability of the candidate to win the ‘undecideds’ without relying heavily on buying favors depends a lot on this factor.

The image factor has two components. One component relates to the positioning of a presidential candidate on image-defining attributes which voters consider as important in their choice of a candidate and as understood by them. Compassionate. Caring. Honorable. Hardworking. Principled. Intelligent. These are some image-defining attributes that candidates try to project.

The second component relates to the positioning of the presidential candidate on advocacy or social issues that voters are able to identify with and consider as issues that the government must address.

Manny Villar decided to spend a lot of advertising money to tell voters about his advocacy on the plight of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW). Many of his radio and television ads refer to his programs and initiatives to help OFWs. Mar Roxas is spending a lot of his law-making resources and advertising budget to tell the Filipinos that he cares about their future by investigating anomalies in the pre-need industry. Bayani Fernando has been all over Metro Manila and, lately, even outside the National Capital Region, telling people about his experience and success in governance.

The most effective image-defining attributes and advocacy are those that bring in the votes. Presidential candidates whose nominations are high or breach above the critical level are those whose image-defining attributes and social advocacy match what voters expect and look for. Effective positioning gives candidates committed votes long before the election is held, a scenario that could minimize extraordinary investments to win votes or favors.

The survey conducted by The Asia-Pacific Centre for Research (Acre), Inc. in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households listed three candidates that are in that range of a critical mass base 18 months into the 2010 election. They are former President Joseph Estrada (24%), Senator Loren Legarda (20%), and Vice-President Noli de Castro (18%).

How is it possible that a former President, who was removed from his office through people power and is possibly prohibited by the Philippine constitution, remains a strong contender for president? Let me cite two reasons:

First, Estrada’s image as viewed from the lens of voters matches those which these voters expect from a politician. Second, Estrada is closely identified with a social advocacy that voters consider very important to them, their family and the community where they live. Eighteen months into the presidential election, it is not a surprise that Estrada emerged at the top with a 24% nomination, way past the critical mass base that a candidate needs to have a good shot at the presidency 12 months into the election.

The same survey conducted in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households reveals that of 11 image-defining attributes presented to them, two have significantly more mentions than the other attributes. These are Honesty and Real Concern for the Poor. The rest have below average nominations.

In the attribute Honesty, three candidates crowd each other at the top, they are Noli de Castro, Loren Legarda and Erap Estrada with almost the same statistical ratios. These are the same candidates who emerged as the top choices for president.

In the attribute Real Concern for the Poor, Erap Estrada was clearly at the front without any competition. This slight advantage in image position translates into additional votes.

In the same survey, voters identified Employment as the single most important economic and social issue, as defined by voters. Other important issues although with much less nominations are Basic Social Services and Peace and Security. The rest have below average mentions.

Closely associated with this social advocacy as evaluated by voters is Manny Villar followed by the three top-rating candidates – Estrada, De Castro and Legarda.

In both components, Estrada is regarded highly by voters. This explains for his excellent performance in the nominations for president.

The Erap mystery is a lesson on image positioning. His image is simply consistent with what the voters look for. He was able to leverage on this consistency and translate it into votes. Since Erap will not be allowed to run for the highest position in the land, this lesson should serve as one scenario for those who are aspiring to win in the next presidential election.

(for comments, write to Nick Fontanilla, abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com)

The winnable presidential candidate

There are two critical elements that must be present for a presidentiable to even have a chance of winning one year into the election.

These two critical elements are a solid mass base and the ability or machinery to attract the ‘undecideds’. Solid mass base refers to those who are extremely loyal to the candidate and remain committed until the day of election. The ‘undecideds’ include those who have a choice but are still open to persuasion and those still without a choice one year into the election.

From experience, a winnable presidentiable should have a mass base of 20% of voters committed to vote for the candidate one year into the election. The survey conducted by The Asia-Pacific Centre for Research (Acre), Inc. in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households listed three candidates that are in that range of a critical mass base 18 months into the 2010 election. They are former President Joseph Estrada (24%), Senator Loren Legarda (20%), and Vice-President Noli de Castro (18%).

Eighteen months is still a long way into the election. Many things have happened between November 2008 and April 2009. Other candidates have established a growing mass base including Senator Chiz Escudero. A presidential candidate who hopes to have a good chance at winning should have been able to build a critical mass base of at least 20% by May 2009. It is easy to understand the importance of having a good head start.

This norm becomes less of a requirement if there are no candidates that dominate one year into the election. In that scenario, the second element – ability or machinery to attract the ‘undecideds’ -- becomes even more critical.

In the 2004 local elections, the percentage of voters who were still undecided one month before the election was around 40% including those that had a choice but were still open to persuasion. In the 2007 elections, both for national and local, less than 20% were undecided one month into the election. That is a drastic shift in the Filipinos’ voting behavior. Although this shift applied to local candidates, presidential candidates should take note of this shift which may be indicative of a trend – that the period of persuasion is getting shorter.

There are two ways of persuading voters who remain undecided during the period of persuasion. First is through massive spending, the traditional mode of persuading voters. Second is through a meaningful and effective strategy, an alternative mode that is gaining supporters.

A meaningful and effective strategy starts with a clear definition of the target – the undecided. The candidate who can clearly identify the target and a significant chunk of that target that is open to persuasion outside of short-term monetary rewards has a clear advantage.

There are scientific methods for identifying targets – whether they are buyers or voters.

One effective method, which is usually employed by marketers and communicators, is segmentation. The researcher uses advanced techniques to identify relevant segments, the population of each segment, and a typology for these segments based on their behavioral and socio-economic profiles. The output becomes the basis for spending – media selection, content development, communication and promotions.

Another effective method, which is a cross-over from segmentation and an operationalized one-to-one marketing, is micro-targeting. Micro-targeting uses the same principles of segmentation but applies new analytics to create statistical models or scores that can be operationally deployed to a mailing list or database of voters or buyers.

In segmentation, you know what your target voters are and possibly in which geographic areas they are. In micro-targeting, you know who they are – their email, telephone, postal address or office address. Micro-targeting is clearly a leapfrog from segmentation. It targets a face or an ‘addressed’ individual with a defined preference or voting behavior.

Being a downstream methodology, it requires a combination of commitment, technology and skills to make it a platform for competitive advantage. The most challenging requirement is the development of a list of ‘address-defined’ voters who are reachable through a medium that provides the widest reach and demands the lowest cost.

The Yahoo-Nielsen Net Index 2008 (October-November 2008), results of which were reported by Abigail Ho in 13 April 2009 issue of Philippine Daily Inquirer, reports that 28 percent of Filipinos in National Urban Philippines – or 22 major cities, including Metro Manila – access the internet. Of this total, about one-fifth use the internet every day.

These internet users are young, with 90% of them in the age range 10 to 29, well-educated and upscale, cuts across geographic boundaries, stand out in a crowd, and prefer to buy higher-quality products and services even at a premium. The majority of them (63%) use email and instant messaging. Most common browsers and IMs are Yahoo and YM.

I have that researcher’s gut that a big chunk of the undecideds who are open to positive persuasion (during the period of persuasion) in a national election are in that category. I also have that pollster's gut that the next president of the Philippines will be someone who would have mastered this new form of persuasion. I am willing to be challenged in that premise.

(for comments, mail to abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com)