Demystifying Erap's Winnability

The chances of a presidential candidate winning the 2010 Philippine presidential election depend on two major factors.

The first, which was the subject of another article in this blogspot (The Winnable Presidential Candidate), is the numerical factor. This factor suggests that to have a winning chance, the candidate must have a political base of at least 20% of voters 12 months into the election. It is easy to understand the importance of this critical mass base. It is also an important signal for the candidate – to be or not to be a presidential candidate.

It also suggests that the chances of the presidential candidate will depend so much on the candidate’s ability to get a significant proportion of the ‘undecideds’ or those who have a choice but are still open to persuasion.

Second is the image factor. The ability of the candidate to win the ‘undecideds’ without relying heavily on buying favors depends a lot on this factor.

The image factor has two components. One component relates to the positioning of a presidential candidate on image-defining attributes which voters consider as important in their choice of a candidate and as understood by them. Compassionate. Caring. Honorable. Hardworking. Principled. Intelligent. These are some image-defining attributes that candidates try to project.

The second component relates to the positioning of the presidential candidate on advocacy or social issues that voters are able to identify with and consider as issues that the government must address.

Manny Villar decided to spend a lot of advertising money to tell voters about his advocacy on the plight of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW). Many of his radio and television ads refer to his programs and initiatives to help OFWs. Mar Roxas is spending a lot of his law-making resources and advertising budget to tell the Filipinos that he cares about their future by investigating anomalies in the pre-need industry. Bayani Fernando has been all over Metro Manila and, lately, even outside the National Capital Region, telling people about his experience and success in governance.

The most effective image-defining attributes and advocacy are those that bring in the votes. Presidential candidates whose nominations are high or breach above the critical level are those whose image-defining attributes and social advocacy match what voters expect and look for. Effective positioning gives candidates committed votes long before the election is held, a scenario that could minimize extraordinary investments to win votes or favors.

The survey conducted by The Asia-Pacific Centre for Research (Acre), Inc. in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households listed three candidates that are in that range of a critical mass base 18 months into the 2010 election. They are former President Joseph Estrada (24%), Senator Loren Legarda (20%), and Vice-President Noli de Castro (18%).

How is it possible that a former President, who was removed from his office through people power and is possibly prohibited by the Philippine constitution, remains a strong contender for president? Let me cite two reasons:

First, Estrada’s image as viewed from the lens of voters matches those which these voters expect from a politician. Second, Estrada is closely identified with a social advocacy that voters consider very important to them, their family and the community where they live. Eighteen months into the presidential election, it is not a surprise that Estrada emerged at the top with a 24% nomination, way past the critical mass base that a candidate needs to have a good shot at the presidency 12 months into the election.

The same survey conducted in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households reveals that of 11 image-defining attributes presented to them, two have significantly more mentions than the other attributes. These are Honesty and Real Concern for the Poor. The rest have below average nominations.

In the attribute Honesty, three candidates crowd each other at the top, they are Noli de Castro, Loren Legarda and Erap Estrada with almost the same statistical ratios. These are the same candidates who emerged as the top choices for president.

In the attribute Real Concern for the Poor, Erap Estrada was clearly at the front without any competition. This slight advantage in image position translates into additional votes.

In the same survey, voters identified Employment as the single most important economic and social issue, as defined by voters. Other important issues although with much less nominations are Basic Social Services and Peace and Security. The rest have below average mentions.

Closely associated with this social advocacy as evaluated by voters is Manny Villar followed by the three top-rating candidates – Estrada, De Castro and Legarda.

In both components, Estrada is regarded highly by voters. This explains for his excellent performance in the nominations for president.

The Erap mystery is a lesson on image positioning. His image is simply consistent with what the voters look for. He was able to leverage on this consistency and translate it into votes. Since Erap will not be allowed to run for the highest position in the land, this lesson should serve as one scenario for those who are aspiring to win in the next presidential election.

(for comments, write to Nick Fontanilla, abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com)