The winnable presidential candidate

There are two critical elements that must be present for a presidentiable to even have a chance of winning one year into the election.

These two critical elements are a solid mass base and the ability or machinery to attract the ‘undecideds’. Solid mass base refers to those who are extremely loyal to the candidate and remain committed until the day of election. The ‘undecideds’ include those who have a choice but are still open to persuasion and those still without a choice one year into the election.

From experience, a winnable presidentiable should have a mass base of 20% of voters committed to vote for the candidate one year into the election. The survey conducted by The Asia-Pacific Centre for Research (Acre), Inc. in November 2008 among a nationwide sample of 1,500 voter-households listed three candidates that are in that range of a critical mass base 18 months into the 2010 election. They are former President Joseph Estrada (24%), Senator Loren Legarda (20%), and Vice-President Noli de Castro (18%).

Eighteen months is still a long way into the election. Many things have happened between November 2008 and April 2009. Other candidates have established a growing mass base including Senator Chiz Escudero. A presidential candidate who hopes to have a good chance at winning should have been able to build a critical mass base of at least 20% by May 2009. It is easy to understand the importance of having a good head start.

This norm becomes less of a requirement if there are no candidates that dominate one year into the election. In that scenario, the second element – ability or machinery to attract the ‘undecideds’ -- becomes even more critical.

In the 2004 local elections, the percentage of voters who were still undecided one month before the election was around 40% including those that had a choice but were still open to persuasion. In the 2007 elections, both for national and local, less than 20% were undecided one month into the election. That is a drastic shift in the Filipinos’ voting behavior. Although this shift applied to local candidates, presidential candidates should take note of this shift which may be indicative of a trend – that the period of persuasion is getting shorter.

There are two ways of persuading voters who remain undecided during the period of persuasion. First is through massive spending, the traditional mode of persuading voters. Second is through a meaningful and effective strategy, an alternative mode that is gaining supporters.

A meaningful and effective strategy starts with a clear definition of the target – the undecided. The candidate who can clearly identify the target and a significant chunk of that target that is open to persuasion outside of short-term monetary rewards has a clear advantage.

There are scientific methods for identifying targets – whether they are buyers or voters.

One effective method, which is usually employed by marketers and communicators, is segmentation. The researcher uses advanced techniques to identify relevant segments, the population of each segment, and a typology for these segments based on their behavioral and socio-economic profiles. The output becomes the basis for spending – media selection, content development, communication and promotions.

Another effective method, which is a cross-over from segmentation and an operationalized one-to-one marketing, is micro-targeting. Micro-targeting uses the same principles of segmentation but applies new analytics to create statistical models or scores that can be operationally deployed to a mailing list or database of voters or buyers.

In segmentation, you know what your target voters are and possibly in which geographic areas they are. In micro-targeting, you know who they are – their email, telephone, postal address or office address. Micro-targeting is clearly a leapfrog from segmentation. It targets a face or an ‘addressed’ individual with a defined preference or voting behavior.

Being a downstream methodology, it requires a combination of commitment, technology and skills to make it a platform for competitive advantage. The most challenging requirement is the development of a list of ‘address-defined’ voters who are reachable through a medium that provides the widest reach and demands the lowest cost.

The Yahoo-Nielsen Net Index 2008 (October-November 2008), results of which were reported by Abigail Ho in 13 April 2009 issue of Philippine Daily Inquirer, reports that 28 percent of Filipinos in National Urban Philippines – or 22 major cities, including Metro Manila – access the internet. Of this total, about one-fifth use the internet every day.

These internet users are young, with 90% of them in the age range 10 to 29, well-educated and upscale, cuts across geographic boundaries, stand out in a crowd, and prefer to buy higher-quality products and services even at a premium. The majority of them (63%) use email and instant messaging. Most common browsers and IMs are Yahoo and YM.

I have that researcher’s gut that a big chunk of the undecideds who are open to positive persuasion (during the period of persuasion) in a national election are in that category. I also have that pollster's gut that the next president of the Philippines will be someone who would have mastered this new form of persuasion. I am willing to be challenged in that premise.

(for comments, mail to abfontanilla@yahoo.com or nick.fontanilla@gmail.com)